No one at the starting line of a 100 mile race knows for sure they can finish.

There are so many variables outside our control, like weather.

But runners with the best chance of finishing have at least one thing in common.

Negative thinking is an unmanaged brain thinking thoughts about you.

Left to its own devices, it does its best to protect you against your clearly insane goals in which so many things can go wrong.

We think we can stop the negativity if we ignore it or become faster runners (because they must feel good about themselves).

Runners worry they won’t be able to get out of the late aid stations in a 100-mile race.

Why?

Because of the “be able to” part.

When I tell runners they can be confident at the starting line, they see my number of finishes and think,

“Easy for you to say. If I’d run that many 100s, I’d be confident too.”

It’s a fundamental misunderstanding of how to become confident.

Runners typically give two reasons they DNF’d a race - they followed the wrong training plan or they didn't follow their plan good enough.

Either way, they blame themselves - they should have known better or done better.

It creates a lot of shame.

“I feel like I don’t belong.”

Client after client says the same thing.

They look at social media, read articles about who’s doing it right, and stand at the starting line comparing themselves to everyone else.

I recently got a new pair of prescription glasses.

I was way overdue for a pair and had my annual eye exam one week before my yearly insurance benefit expired.

The doctor’s office has a selection of frames, so I looked through them while I was waiting.

The 100-mile race you’re thinking about is exciting.

It looks challenging and beautiful.

You want to register but you flash back over the recent races you’ve run.

“You’ve run enough races, you should quit now.”

“I worry what another DNF will do to your confidence.”

“You DNF’d the last three 100-mile attempts - why don’t you stick to shorter races?”

You think you should just be able to run consistently every day, like your training plan says.

It should come easy.

It’s what ultrarunners do, at the least the good ones who know what they’re doing.

Lately, several clients have complained that they “move the goal posts.”

Whatever they achieve - PR, finish, age group award, podium finish - should have made them happy, confident at ultras, and changed the way they feel about themselves. But when they get there, they decide the next, bigger goal will do it instead.

In other words, you keep raising expectations higher and higher.

I get this question a lot, so here's an oldie-but-goodie post to help as you're planning next year's race calendar.

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Maybe you’re a masters or grandmasters runner who DNF’d your last 100-mile race.Maybe you’ve had another birthday, like I recently did, and feel surprised by the number.

I sat in the toasty warm car at the start of Tunnel Hill 100, watching runners and crew pass back and forth in front of me in the frigid cold between their own warm cars and race check-in.

As they passed, I dissected what each was wearing.

Pants or shorts? T-shirt, long-sleeve t-shirt, fleece, vest? Hat?

Last weekend, I ran Tunnel Hill 100.

The course isn’t my comfort zone.

The shape is mentally challenging - you start in the middle of the capital letter “I”, go to the bottom, back to the middle, to the top, back to the middle, and repeat.

After skipping Javelina 100 last year, I registered months ahead for this year’s.

But when the calendar rolled around to October, a perfect storm of individual emergencies struck all three members of my immediate family at virtually the same time…in Arizona. While I live on the other side of the country in Tennessee.

Family living near the race is the reason I started running Javelina years ago, and I usually stay the week after for a the relaxed visit.

Since I’ve finished Javelina 100 13 times before, most people assume I know what to expect, my race goes flawlessly…

And that’s why I finish.

Spoiler alert: It doesn’t work that way.

Runners facing a big race often worry about being able to finish it.

They list reasons why.

The distance - 50k, 50 miles, 100k,100 miles, 200 miles - is a long way.

Getting confident at 100-mile races doesn’t magically happen the moment you finish your first.

Neither does getting reliable at finishing them.

And learning how to run them sustainably over the long term takes more time and mastery beyond that.

It’s fall, which means a lot of us are poised to finally run our long-awaited “A” races.

As fear creeps in.

You don't want to get lost, struggle to stay awake at night, have your stomach revolt, encounter scary animals, fall and injure yourself, develop foot problems…