Estimation Bias

(20 miles in at the Shenandoah River overlook, knowing I can do this)

This year, for the first time in 19 years, I wasn’t sure I could finish Massanutten 100.

I’d just DNF’d easier Zumbro 100, in part because I underestimated things, so I wanted to take the much harder Massanutten seriously.

I wasn’t going to underestimate this race.

It had been three years since I’d run it. My ‘body memory’ of the course had faded a bit and my running had changed. The race felt like a friend I’d lost touch with.

So estimating how hard it would be for me this year wasn’t simple.

I thought over the course.

Those climbs were long when I was in better shape, and there are plenty of them. Bird Knob is so steep. I didn’t climb like that in training these days and felt unprepared for them. The Zumbro climbs were shorter and I didn’t do them well.

Then there are the rocks. Everywhere. I’d been training mostly on gravel road. That might have been fine 20 years ago…but now?

And there’s the weather. I hoped it wouldn’t be muddy. The muddy climb at Zumbro cost me a ton of time and the Massanutten climbs are steeper and longer. Could I handle that now?

I wasn’t sure I was up to it, and that felt unsettling.

When you try like I was to not underestimate a race, you look for all the hard things you might not be able to overcome.

Big climbs, tight cutoff, heat, cold, rocks, elevation gain…

Finding all the difficult parts of the race becomes your focus. You study the race and the more difficulty you find, the bigger the challenge becomes in your mind.

At the same time, your self-concept doesn’t change - you’re still you. You still have the same capability.

So the harder the race looks, the wider the gap between you and the race, and the less capable you look in comparison.

The result - instead of underestimating the race, you end up underestimating yourself.

I call it Underestimation Bias.

I found myself doing this with Massanutten.

It’s smart to study your race’s difficulty. Underestimating it can lead to pain, suffering, and DNFs.

But on the opposite side of the coin, underestimating yourself creates anxiety, self-doubt, and hurts your performance.

It can discourage you from going for an ambitious goal and even prevent you from starting the race when you don’t seem to stand a chance against the course.

The solution is simple: take both the race AND yourself seriously.

Just as you inventoried all the race’s difficulties, inventory your own strengths, superpowers and advantages.

If you find any gaps between your strengths and the race’s difficulty, set up a plan to eliminate them, and work the plan.

When you accurately assess your ability against the race like this:

You have a clearer picture of how you’ll do in the race.

You create confidence knowing your strengths and that you’ve addressed any gaps.

You can pace better - not going out too fast or holding back out of fear - and improve your race performance.

You set yourself up for long-term improvement.

And last but not least, you get a balanced perspective that lets you run your potential and enjoy a fulfilling race.