How to Love Not Knowing If You’ll Finish

What bothers us most before a race isn’t the distance, the course, or the cutoffs—it’s the uncertainty.

“Have I trained enough? Will I be ready? Can I handle it? Will I make the right choice when I want to quit?”

And the ultimate question: “Will I finish?”

Not knowing the answer is stressful. You crave certainty so the anxiety will stop, and you can relax.

But here’s the truth: for most of your ultrarunning life, you live in this ‘not-knowing’ space. The part we resist—uncertainty about finishing—is actually where we spend the most time.

Think about it. For 99.9% of your ultrarunning experience - all the training and most of the race - you don’t know if you’ll finish. You only know the answer in the last 0.1%—when the race is over. And then? You’re right back in uncertainty with the next race.

The real problem with this isn’t not knowing how the race will go—it’s how we respond to not knowing. At best, we struggle to tolerate it while our minds spin, searching for the answer.

That’s why every run starts feeling like a verdict on race day. A good run? I’ll finish! A bad run? What was I thinking - I’m not ready!

Over time, we start seeing a finish as something to lose rather than something to earn, so knowing if you’ll finish feels more urgent. The rising stress about losing something we’re counting on drains our energy long before we reach the starting line. You lose enthusiasm, running stops being fun, and you just want the race to be over so the relentless “Will I finish?” finally stops.

So if we spend nearly all of our ultrarunning life in this uncertain phase, doesn’t it make sense to handle it better?

You have two basic ways to approach this uncertain phase: let it work against you, or make it work for you.

Most of us let it work against us. We keep seeing the race as something to lose, and we worry about failing. The more we focus on that scenario, the more we lose our excitement for training and dread race day - and we run the race that way and confirm our fears about failure.

So let’s take the other approach - make the uncertainty work for you.

Dare to see the uncertainty of not knowing how the race will go as your chance to rise to the challenge and put the odds as much as possible in your favor. As freedom to believe you can and make that dream come to life.

Uncertainty isn’t a problem—it’s potential. As long as the outcome is unknown, both success and failure are possible. And that means you still have time to influence which way it goes.

This isn’t waiting time. It’s your opportunity.

You don’t know you’ll finish, but you also don’t know you won’t. That’s your opening. This is the time to train with purpose, define your race plan, and strengthen the mindset you need to carry you through the miles, past the temptation to drop, all the way to the finish line. This is the time you set yourself up to succeed.

When you stop fighting uncertainty and start using it, everything shifts.

Instead of dreading the race, you spend the 99.9% of the uncertain phase excited for it. You can map out your race strategy instead of spinning in doubt. You have the calm to see how every run—good and bad—is preparing you. You can build the belief bank that will carry you through the dark moments to the finish.

And something else. When you see uncertainty as a normal part of the process of running an ultra, you realize this: you belong in this race with everyone else because you’re all doing the same thing. You’re all rising to challenge the unknown, together.

That makes the race experience even more powerful.

So stop resisting uncertainty. Use it. It’s not a threat—it’s the rare chance to rise, meet a true challenge head-on, and prove to yourself what you’re truly capable of.